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Bitcoin Enters a ‘New Bull Cycle’ – Metric Shows 70% Gains After Bottoming

Bitcoin bull cycle image

Bitcoin Bull Cycle Realized Cap HODL Waves Indicate a Classic Bull Market Launch, Reflecting BTC Price History.

The Bitcoin Bull Cycle (BTC) ticker dips to $25,998, but the metric that accurately predicted the lowest point of the 2022 bear market asserts that its upward momentum remains unbroken.

In a post dated August 22, the originator of the on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin shares positive developments through Bitcoin’s Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL).

Long-Term Perspective on BTC Amidst Recent Price Dip

While the recent 10% decline in BTC price has disrupted certain aspects of the on-chain landscape, RHODL maintains its focus on the enduring trajectory of an ongoing bullish market.

RHODL operates with a forward-looking approach, utilizing existing HODL Waves data to organize the BTC supply based on the last movement of each coin, particularly unspent transaction outputs. This data is then weighted by the realized price, signifying the price at the time of the most recent movement.

Though this process might appear intricate, its outcomes carry clear significance.

Philip Swift elaborates on the outcomes, noting that “Peaks in younger age bands highlight periods where they have a proportionally higher Realized Value weighting relative to the older Realized Value age bands,” as outlined in his introduction on LookIntoBitcoin.

Evaluating Market Overheat Through Bitcoin’s On-Chain Insights

It’s vital to acknowledge that this indicates the market’s willingness to offer higher valuations for bitcoin in current and recent times, diverging from historical standards. This can serve as a notable signal of a potential overheated market.

Presently, clusters of coins that were last transacted three to six months ago are experiencing an upward surge. This phenomenon echoes a pattern typical of the initial stages of Bitcoin’s past bull markets.

Drawing attention to the August dip in BTC/USD, Swift concludes that “the recent price decline must be understood within the broader context of a substantially larger bullish trend.”

In a concise summary, he remarks, “The ascending trend of the 3–6 month band, driven by fresh inflows of capital into the market, aligns with the emergence of a new bull cycle.

Bitcoin Bull Cycle image 1

RHODL’s Notable Performance across Bitcoin Price Phases

RHODL boasts an impressive track record when it comes to tracking BTC’s price dynamics.

In December 2022, during a period when BTC/USD hovered around its two-year nadir of $15,600, Swift harnessed this metric to forecast the conclusion of “euphoria” within Bitcoin’s speculative investor group, colloquially referred to as “tourists.”

During this juncture, he conveyed that the market likely stood at the nadir of its cycle, presenting an environment rife with the maximum risk-reward prospects.

Bitcoin Bull Cycle image 2

Commencing from January of this year, Bitcoin initiated a fresh upward trajectory, yielding a remarkable 70% surge solely in Q1.

Concurrently, the makeup of investors has evolved, witnessed through a decrease in overall exposure among short-term holders (STHs) – entities clutching BTC for 155 days or fewer. This reduced exposure stands at its lowest point since November 2021.

Despite this, the recent downturn has intensified pressure on the remaining speculators. Presently, nearly 90% of STH-held coins are experiencing unrealized losses.


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